This document looks at the possibility of creating a viable "home-grown" BIODIESEL market and production / distribution system. There are currently two known sources for BIODIESEL in South Carolina. They are:

1. "Home-grown" virgin BIODIESEL from agricultural crops
2. "Reclaimed" BIODIESEL from processing Municipal Solid Waste (MSW).

There are several other emerging candidates for BIODIESEL but at present there is insufficient data to provide benefit/cost analysis for these alternatives.

Two other candidates have been discarded due to a total lack of available resources in South Carolina. They are "COALDIESEL" and fossil fuel-based DIESEL. There are no coal mines or oil wells in South Carolina at this present time.

"Home-Grown" Virgin BIODIESEL

The average South Carolina farm has 200 acres and is the basis for this analysis.

Virgin BIODIESEL Production and Gross Revenue Estimates

Wholesale Price / gallon	Yield=100gal/acre	Yield=150gal/acre	Yield=200gal/acre	Yield=600gal/acre
$1.00	$20,000	$30,000	$40,000	$120,000
$2.00	$40,000	$60,000	$80,000	$240,000
$2.50	$50,000	$75,000	$100,000	$300,000
$3.00	$60,000	$90,000	$120,000	$360,000
$3.50	$70,000	$105,000	$140,000	$420,000

For example, if a farmer's 200 acre crop yields 100 gallons per acre and it sells for $2.00 a gallon, the gross revenue will be $40,000. From this gross amount the farmer must subtract all production costs, which have been arbitrary set at $20,000 for this analysis, yielding a Net Income Before Tax (NIBT) of $20,000. This is a marginal case but believed to be acceptable to some farmers when compared to other crop alternatives.

Now assume that new hybrid seed is now available and the yield is 200 gallons per acre. The seed and fertilizer may cost more, but the fuel, equipment and labor will probably remain the same. Let us also assume that there is strong market demand and the farmer can sell the oil for $3.00 a gallon. The gross revenue has now increased from $40,000 to $120,000, with a NIBT of $90,000 (assuming a production cost of $30,000). If these numbers can be achieved and sustained, the likelihood of a lot more people getting back into farming will be good to excellent.

Finally, let's look at a "future" scenario. Assume agronomists have been able to hybridize a plant like the palm oil palm, enabling it to not only grow but thrive in South Carolina's soils and climate. With a yield of 600 gallons per acre, this crop could be really attractive to quite a few. Let's also assume that by the time this plant is available diesel fuel is selling for a retail price $6.00 a gallon, and the wholesale price for the raw biodiesel feedstock oil is $3.50 per gallon. With these numbers, the Gross Revenue from only 200 acres would be $420,000, with the NIBT ranging between $300,000 and $340,000. Profits like this could even trigger a momentary land boom with rapidly escalating prices for agricultural land.

Please note that these projections do NOT include any additional value that can be derived from the pulp or meal that remains after the oil has been extracted.

A word of caution, also remember that these revenue, cost and profit projections are totally arbitrary and not based on actual numbers. This project is in urgent need of ACTUAL numbers from farmers already growing crops for oil, and we would greatly appreciate your sharing your findings with us. To do so, just leave us a message by clicking on the "Comments" button below.

Sound implausible? Field corn yields have risen from 60 bushels per acre to 150 bushels per acre in just 40 years, with occasional yields of 200 bushels per acre. See "How Much Corn..." for more information. Research into plants grown specifically for oil production has just begun when compared to research and development in wheat and corn.

Only time will tell what future yields will be. The important issue here is, if the numbers above are reasonably accurate, a good to strong case can be made for growing and producing significant amounts of BIODIESEL in South Carolina, starting today. Also, if the numbers are accurate this can take place without government intervention, being driven completely by free market forces.

Reclaimed BIODIESEL

Unfortunately, at this early stage of this project Greenway Labs not been able to gather comprehensive data about this candidate. We have been able to put together the following analysis about what might be possible:

Reclaimed BIODIESEL Production Estimates

MSW Yields	MSW Tons/day	Gallons/day	Gallons Per Year (300 days)
40gal/ton	300	12,000	3,600,000
80gal/ton	500	40,000	12,000,000
120gal/ton	1,000	120,000	36,000,000
200gal/ton	1,500	300,000	90,000,000

Currently, there are wide ranging estimates of the amount of MSW generated by the average American. If we assume a nominal amount of 4 pounds of MSW per person per day, and if we assume a South Carolina permanent plus transient population of 5 million (we have many visitors who come to our wonderful mountains and beaches), the annual MSW yield is approximately 3.5 million tons. If we could process 50% of the MSW state-wide, it could yield as much as 500,000,00 gallons per year.

But at what cost? And at what quality? These remain unknowns at this point in the project. Any factual information regarding this BIODIESEL candidate will be greatly appreciated!

Combining Multiple BIODIESEL Sources to Produce a Stable Supply

Very early in the project it became apparent that there would not be one clear "winner" when it comes to producing "Local" BIODIESEL. It also became apparent that there is considerable synergism possible by combining multiple sources. These are:

1. "Home-grown" BIODIESEL is cyclic. South Carolina is blessed with a climate that often allows for planting two crops in a single year. But the yields come in over a very short period of time during harvesting. Yields are also subject to the normal farming fluctuations (weather, pestilence, etc).
2. "Reclaimed" BIODIESEL may not turn out to be of the same quality (Cetane rating, etc) as home-grown, but its production will be consistent on a daily basis.
3. Combining the two sources offers a means to provide a constant supply, with home-grown harvests being timed to meet seasonal demands that occur during the summer and winter seasons.

This area currently represents a large number of unknowns for this project. Your participation will be greatly appreciated! Please use the "Comments" button below to join and contribute.

Thanks in advance,
The Greenway SC Vehicle Fuels Project Team